Independent · non-commercial · publishes on a quarterly cycle|Current cycle 2026 Q3
Compound Evidence InstituteEvidence synthesis · established 2023Graded assessments of compounds, trials, methods and supply
Document set current to 30 July 2026
Compound monograph · evidence extract

Semaglutide in type 2 diabetes mellitus — evidence extract

The Institute's graded assessment of Semaglutide for type 2 diabetes mellitus, with the contributing trials and the domain-by-domain certainty reasoning.

Document identifier
CEI-MN-001/EV-T2DM
Series
Evidence extract
Version
1.1
Published
16 Sep 2023
Last reviewed
16 Aug 2024
Next review
16 Aug 2026
Identifier
10.71829/cei.mono.1
Certainty
High
Cycle
2023 Q3

§1Evidence extract: Type 2 diabetes mellitus

§1.1Question and anchor outcome

Population
A disorder of glucose regulation characterised by insulin resistance with relative insulin deficiency, diagnosed by glycated haemoglobin, fasting plasma glucose or oral glucose tolerance criteria.
Intervention
Semaglutide, subcutaneous once weekly; oral once daily with a permeation enhancer (see separate monograph)
Comparator
As used in each contributing trial; reported per trial rather than pooled across comparator types
Anchor outcome
Change in HbA1c (%, mmol/mol)

Additional outcomes the Institute extracts for this indication: Proportion achieving HbA1c <7.0 % and ≤6.5 %; Change in fasting serum glucose; Change in body weight; Documented symptomatic hypoglycaemia.

§1.2Contributing trials

Table 1. Trials contributing to the assessment of Semaglutide in type 2 diabetes mellitus.

TrialPhaseDesignRandomisedDurationYear
SUSTAIN-13Randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled38830 weeks2017
SUSTAIN-63Event-driven cardiovascular outcome trial3,297104 weeks2016
SUSTAIN-73Randomised, double-blind, active-controlled1,20140 weeks2018
STEP-23Randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled1,21068 weeks2021

§1.3Certainty assessment

Certainty assessment by domainDowngrading decision recorded for each certainty domain.Certainty domainNo concernSeriousVery seriousEffect on ratingRisk of biasno downgradeInconsistencyno downgradeIndirectnessno downgradeImprecisionno downgradePublication biasno downgradeTotal downgrading: 0 levelsHigh certainty
Figure 2. Domain-by-domain certainty assessment for Semaglutide in type 2 diabetes mellitus. The starting rating for a body of randomised evidence is high; each serious concern reduces it by one level and each very serious concern by two.

Table 2. Reasoning recorded against each certainty domain.

DomainRatingReasoning
Risk of biasNo concernNo serious concern identified in this domain.
InconsistencyNo concernNo serious concern identified in this domain.
IndirectnessNo concernNo serious concern identified in this domain.
ImprecisionNo concernNo serious concern identified in this domain.
Publication biasNo concernNo serious concern identified in this domain.
Overall rating: High certainty. The Institute is confident that the true effect lies close to the estimate. Further research is very unlikely to change confidence in the estimate.

§1.4What this extract does not establish

References cited on this page

References are numbered in order of first citation in this document. Each superscript in the text links to its entry below.

  1. Wilding JPH, Batterham RL, Calanna S, Davies M, Van Gaal LF, Lingvay I, McGowan BM, Rosenstock J, Tran MTD, Wadden TA, Wharton S, Yokote K, Zeuthen N, Kushner RF. Once-weekly semaglutide in adults with overweight or obesity. New England Journal of Medicine 2021;384(11):989–1002. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa2032183 · PMID 33567185
  2. Davies M, Færch L, Jeppesen OK, Pakseresht A, Pedersen SD, Perreault L, Rosenstock J, Shimomura I, Viljoen A, Wadden TA, Lingvay I. Semaglutide 2·4 mg once a week in adults with overweight or obesity, and type 2 diabetes (STEP 2): a randomised, double-blind, double-dummy, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial. The Lancet 2021;397(10278):971–984. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00213-0 · PMID 33667417
  3. Wadden TA, Bailey TS, Billings LK, Davies M, Frias JP, Koroleva A, Lingvay I, O’Neil PM, Rubino DM, Skovgaard D, Wallenstein SOR, Garvey WT. Effect of subcutaneous semaglutide vs placebo as an adjunct to intensive behavioral therapy on body weight in adults with overweight or obesity: the STEP 3 randomized clinical trial. JAMA 2021;325(14):1403–1413. doi:10.1001/jama.2021.1831 · PMID 33625476

Identifiers are reproduced only where the Institute holds them. Where a digital object identifier or PubMed identifier is not shown, the Institute has recorded the journal and year and has not constructed an identifier.

Nothing published by the Institute is medical advice, a diagnosis, a prescription, a treatment recommendation or a purchasing recommendation. Compounds supplied for research use are not approved for human or veterinary use in any jurisdiction, and a favourable analytical assessment of a supplier is not a statement that any product is safe or effective. The Institute publishes certainty ratings and never recommendations. No telephone number, messaging handle or ordering channel appears anywhere on this site.