Independent · non-commercial · publishes on a quarterly cycle|Current cycle 2026 Q3
Compound Evidence InstituteEvidence synthesis · established 2023Graded assessments of compounds, trials, methods and supply
Document set current to 30 July 2026
Indication assessment · Metabolic

Prediabetes and progression to type 2 diabetes — indication assessment

Glucose regulation impaired beyond normal limits but below diagnostic thresholds for diabetes, including impaired fasting glucose, impaired glucose tolerance, and intermediate HbA1c.

Document identifier
CEI-IN-08
Series
Indication assessment
Version
2.0
Published
16 Mar 2023
Last reviewed
16 Mar 2023
Next review
16 Mar 2025
Identifier
10.71829/cei.ind.8
Certainty
Not rated
Cycle
2023 Q1
ICD-11
5A40
Category
Metabolic

§1Assessment

§1.1Definition

Glucose regulation impaired beyond normal limits but below diagnostic thresholds for diabetes, including impaired fasting glucose, impaired glucose tolerance, and intermediate HbA1c.

§1.2Anchor and additional outcomes

The Institute designates one anchor outcome per indication so that estimates for different compounds are reported on a common measure. The anchor for this indication is the first outcome below.

  1. Incident type 2 diabetes
  2. Reversion to normoglycaemia
  3. Change in HbA1c
  4. Change in body weight

§1.3State of the evidence

Distribution of certainty ratingsShare of assessed outcomes at each certainty level.3compounds
HighModerateLowVery low
Figure 1. Certainty ratings across the 3 compounds the Institute assesses for this indication. A high rating for one compound says nothing about another.

The Institute assesses 3 compounds in this indication, drawing on 10 trial records and 0 evidence syntheses. [1,2]

References cited on this page

References are numbered in order of first citation in this document. Each superscript in the text links to its entry below.

  1. Pi-Sunyer X, Astrup A, Fujioka K, Greenway F, Halpern A, Krempf M, Lau DCW, le Roux CW, Violante Ortiz R, Jensen CB, Wilding JPH. A randomized, controlled trial of 3.0 mg of liraglutide in weight management. New England Journal of Medicine 2015;373(1):11–22. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa1411892 · PMID 26132939
  2. Marso SP, Daniels GH, Brown-Frandsen K, Kristensen P, Mann JFE, Nauck MA, Nissen SE, Pocock S, Poulter NR, Ravn LS, Steinberg WM, Stockner M, Zinman B, Bergenstal RM, Buse JB. Liraglutide and cardiovascular outcomes in type 2 diabetes. New England Journal of Medicine 2016;375(4):311–322. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa1603827 · PMID 27295427

Identifiers are reproduced only where the Institute holds them. Where a digital object identifier or PubMed identifier is not shown, the Institute has recorded the journal and year and has not constructed an identifier.

Nothing published by the Institute is medical advice, a diagnosis, a prescription, a treatment recommendation or a purchasing recommendation. Compounds supplied for research use are not approved for human or veterinary use in any jurisdiction, and a favourable analytical assessment of a supplier is not a statement that any product is safe or effective. The Institute publishes certainty ratings and never recommendations. No telephone number, messaging handle or ordering channel appears anywhere on this site.