Independent · non-commercial · publishes on a quarterly cycle|Current cycle 2026 Q3
Compound Evidence InstituteEvidence synthesis · established 2023Graded assessments of compounds, trials, methods and supply
Document set current to 30 July 2026
Compound monograph · §3

Orforglipron — clinical evidence

Assessed outcomes with certainty ratings, contributing trials and the reasoning for each rating.

Document identifier
CEI-MN-011/3
Series
Compound monograph
Version
1.0
Published
30 Apr 2026
Last reviewed
30 Apr 2026
Next review
30 Apr 2028
Identifier
10.71829/cei.mono.11
Certainty
Moderate
Cycle
2026 Q2

§3Clinical evidence

Assessed outcomes for OrforglipronPoint estimates with confidence intervals for each contributing study, plotted against the line of no effect.0.00.20.40.60.81.0Standardised direction and relative magnitude of the recorded effectIndicationEffect as recordedObesity3 trials · Moderate−14.7 % body weight at 36 weeks with 45…Type 2 diabetes3 trials · Moderate−2.1 % HbA1c at 26 weeks with 45 mg…
Moderate or high certaintyLow or very low certainty
Figure 3. Illustrative. Assessed outcomes plotted on a common standardised axis so that direction and relative magnitude can be compared at a glance. The estimates are not on a common natural scale and the intervals are the Institute's standardised representation of the reported precision, not the published confidence intervals. Published intervals appear in the per-indication extracts and in the text below.

§3.1Obesity and overweight in adults

Anchor outcome. Percentage change in body weight from baseline.

Effect as recorded. −14.7 % body weight at 36 weeks with 45 mg in the phase 2 trial versus −2.3 % with placebo; estimated difference −12.4 percentage points (95 % CI −14.8 to −10.0).[1,2]

Certainty. Moderate certainty Phase 2 at 36 weeks with weight still declining at the final timepoint, so the plateau effect is unknown. Downgraded for indirectness of duration.

Contributing trials. ATTAIN-1 · ATTAIN-2 · ORFO-PH2-OBESITY. Full structured abstracts are published for each.

Full evidence extract for obesity and overweight in adults · Indication assessment

§3.2Type 2 diabetes mellitus

Anchor outcome. Change in HbA1c (%, mmol/mol).

Effect as recorded. −2.1 % HbA1c at 26 weeks with 45 mg versus −0.4 % with placebo; estimated difference −1.7 % (95 % CI −2.1 to −1.3).[2,3]

Certainty. Moderate certainty Phase 2 dose-response with a clear gradient.

Contributing trials. ACHIEVE-1 · ACHIEVE-2 · ORFO-PH2-T2D. Full structured abstracts are published for each.

Full evidence extract for type 2 diabetes mellitus · Indication assessment

References cited on this page

References are numbered in order of first citation in this document. Each superscript in the text links to its entry below.

  1. Wharton S, Blevins T, Connery L, Rosenstock J, Raha S, Liu R, Ma X, Mather KJ, Haupt A, Robins D, Pratt E, Kazda C, Konig M. Daily oral GLP-1 receptor agonist orforglipron for adults with obesity. New England Journal of Medicine 2023;389(10):877–888. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa2302392 · PMID 37342922
  2. Frías JP, Hsia S, Eyde S, Liu R, Ma X, Konig M, Kazda C, Mather KJ, Haupt A, Pratt E, Robins D. Efficacy and safety of oral orforglipron in patients with type 2 diabetes: a multicentre, randomised, dose-response, phase 2 study. The Lancet 2023;402(10400):472–483. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(23)01302-8 · PMID 37369232
  3. Drucker DJ. Mechanisms of action and therapeutic application of glucagon-like peptide-1. Cell Metabolism 2018;27(4):740–756. doi:10.1016/j.cmet.2018.03.001 · PMID 29617641

Identifiers are reproduced only where the Institute holds them. Where a digital object identifier or PubMed identifier is not shown, the Institute has recorded the journal and year and has not constructed an identifier.

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