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Compound Evidence InstituteEvidence synthesis · established 2023Graded assessments of compounds, trials, methods and supply
Document set current to 30 July 2026
Evidence synthesis · Intervention review

Orforglipron in obesity and overweight in adults: effect on the anchor outcome

In the population defined for obesity and overweight in adults, what is the effect of Orforglipron compared with the comparator used in its contributing trials on the anchor outcome for this indication?

Document identifier
CEI-ES-054
Series
Evidence synthesis
Version
2.3
Published
04 Feb 2026
Last reviewed
04 Feb 2026
Next review
04 Aug 2027
Identifier
10.71829/cei.syn.54
Certainty
Moderate
Cycle
2026 Q1
Review type
Intervention review
Search executed
27 Dec 2025

Templated review frame. This review question was generated by crossing an indication with a compound for which contributing trials exist. Its prose frame is templated and is shared with other questions of the same shape. Its included studies, its summary of findings and its certainty rating are computed from the underlying records and are not templated. The Institute publishes these questions because the alternative is to leave a question the document set can answer unanswered, and it labels them because the alternative is to present a templated frame as an authored one.

§1Abstract

§1.1Review question

In the population defined for obesity and overweight in adults, what is the effect of Orforglipron compared with the comparator used in its contributing trials on the anchor outcome for this indication?

§1.2PICO frame

Table 1. The registered PICO frame. Any change made after protocol registration is recorded in the amendment log at §5 and is identified there as post hoc.

ElementAs registered
PopulationExcess adiposity sufficient to impair health, operationalised in the pivotal incretin programmes as a body-mass index of 30 kg/m² or above, or 27 kg/m² or above with at least one weight-related comorbidity.
InterventionOrforglipron administered as oral once daily, without regard to food or water restriction.
ComparatorThe comparator used in each contributing trial, reported per trial rather than pooled across comparator types.
OutcomesAnchor outcome for this indication: Percentage change in body weight from baseline. Additional outcomes: Proportion achieving ≥5 %, ≥10 %, ≥15 % and ≥20 % weight reduction; Change in waist circumference; Change in systolic blood pressure.

§1.3Method in brief

A review of the effects of an intervention on pre-specified outcomes, with a quantitative synthesis where the contributing studies are sufficiently similar. The protocol was registered with the Institute's secretariat before the search was executed. The search was run on 27 December 2025 across 8 sources and is reproduced in full at §2. Screening, extraction and certainty assessment were performed independently by two members of the secretariat with disagreement resolved by a third.[1,2]

§1.4Conclusion

Moderate certainty evidence from 3 contributing trials bears on the effect of Orforglipron on the anchor outcome for obesity and overweight in adults. The estimate the Institute carries in the monograph is: −14.7 % body weight at 36 weeks with 45 mg in the phase 2 trial versus −2.3 % with placebo. Phase 2 at 36 weeks with weight still declining at the final timepoint, so the plateau effect is unknown. Downgraded for indirectness of duration.

The conclusion rests on 3 contributing studies, listed with their extracted data at §3 and summarised outcome by outcome at §4.

§1.5Limitations

References cited on this page

References are numbered in order of first citation in this document. Each superscript in the text links to its entry below.

  1. Wharton S, Blevins T, Connery L, Rosenstock J, Raha S, Liu R, Ma X, Mather KJ, Haupt A, Robins D, Pratt E, Kazda C, Konig M. Daily oral GLP-1 receptor agonist orforglipron for adults with obesity. New England Journal of Medicine 2023;389(10):877–888. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa2302392 · PMID 37342922
  2. Frías JP, Hsia S, Eyde S, Liu R, Ma X, Konig M, Kazda C, Mather KJ, Haupt A, Pratt E, Robins D. Efficacy and safety of oral orforglipron in patients with type 2 diabetes: a multicentre, randomised, dose-response, phase 2 study. The Lancet 2023;402(10400):472–483. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(23)01302-8 · PMID 37369232

Identifiers are reproduced only where the Institute holds them. Where a digital object identifier or PubMed identifier is not shown, the Institute has recorded the journal and year and has not constructed an identifier.

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